Round 1 - Kangaroos Match Preview

By benfti
Out with the old and in with the new, new season, new coach, new game plan, and new faces. The shrink wrap is off and Round one of the 2008 season brings with it a feeling of anticipation like that of Christmas Eve for a 5 year old. After a successful preseason campaign which saw new head coach Matthew Knights come out and execute exactly what he had been bullishly philosophising from the day he stepped into the enormous clown shoes of Kevin Sheedy, its easy for the first time in 27 years to take verbatim what comes out of a dons coaches mouth. Two convincing wins and two honourable defeats where seasoned senior players where sparsely staggered though the side, and the tenacity and exuberance of youth was asked to carry the majority of the work load gave even the most negative of dons fans reason to stop and reflect on the possibilities of what 2008 could yield.

Now the Bombers are on the eve of where the promise and hope of preseason needs to be turned into proof and reality. Monday’s clash at the dome stands as the most realistic measure to date as to where Essendon are at as a football club post the Sheedy/Hird era. Its one thing to show faith to your youngsters who work hard on the track in the pre-season, its another to back them in and avoid the temptation of going for more seasoned performers regardless of form when your playing for sheep stations. Knights has stuck to his guns since November and played the baby bombers across the board in positions of responsibly, he stood by his rotation policy even when it may not have been in the best interests of a big bank cheque, but the end result is that he achieved what he set out to do in this early period and did not stray from the plan, so there is not reason to suggest that in the season proper that he wont do the same.

For the last 1/4 of a very distinguished career, Kevin Sheedy’s Bombers have failed to get over the line when up against any North Melbourne outfit. So the opportunity presents itself for Knights to make his mark very early in the fixture. Since Sheedy’s “contract non-renewal” the national media have sprouted the “comparisons inevitable” in nearly every article about the new coach so here Knights Bombers get a shot at the early running.

Form Guide

Essendon
Its unfair and unrealistic to gauge the Bombers on the their form coming out of 2007, different coach, game plan and team make it a mute point. Preseason saw strong wins against the Bears and Footscray, and less than a kick defeats against the Saints and Eagles. The 2008 Bombers looked sharp and quick and set up attacks from the half back line and kicked to isolated one on one targets in the forward 50. The players moved in packs both out of clearances and towards tackle opportunities, and look to take on opponents wherever possible. Midfielders Dyson, Jetta and Dempsey are the big improvers over pre-season. The only major injury concern for the bombers to come from the pre-season was young tall Scott Gumbleton to re-tear his troublesome hamstring though this is likely to have minimal effect on the start of the 08 Campaign as Gumbleton while given plenty of opportunity would be unlikely to be a major contributor in the early stages of the year. Jason Winderlich and Andrew Welsh look be the only notables unlikely to feature in the early rounds.

North Melbourne
The Shinboners served up a tough defeat in the sweltering conditions of Darwin against the doggies first round of the Nab Cup where the WB looked to out run their opponents and turn the game into a matter of fitness over skill, they then cruised past the Lions by 32 points, Freo @ Freo by 36 and shellacked the demon rabble by 51 points to close out there pre-season campaign. Hamish McIntosh, Brent Harvey and Andrew Swallow look to have continued on there 2007 form while Drew Petrie and Lachlan Hanson look to be the big improvers. Injuries to Jesse Smith and Jess Sinclair the only notables that would likely to have any impact on a round one result.

Key Matchups

McIntosh vs Laycock
Many people think that Hamish McIntosh was very unlucky to miss out on All Australian selection last year and looks to have built on his 07 for over the pre-season. For Laycock 08 has to be his break out year and McIntosh represents his yard stick. Slow starter who has blossomed into one of the leagues best big men, this is what Laycock has to do this year. On song he has the ability to match it with McIntosh if he gets the early running and forces him to chase rather than create play it will go along way to helping the bombers over the line.

Thompson v Michael
The last time these 2 met, Thomson had his original ACL and Michael wore maroon. Historically Thompson has had the better of the bombers and Michael has had the better of Thompson. What we need to see here is, is this a direct result of the match-up or the pressure provided by the opposing teams back half? Thompson will be very keen to start the season off strong after his extended absence but would not be looking forward to the scrag with the leagues strongest full back, if he has any doubts over the strength of his knee. If North has opted to have Thompson again their main target down forward shutting him down will force the Roos to look for another main avenue to goal which is a very unsettling thing to happen round one of a new season.

Michael Firrito v Mathew Lloyd.
Firrito was a revelation for the Roos last year, no one saw him coming and he proved a integral part of Norths season last year. Firrito is the perfect example of a player who’s coach has shown faith in him. The bombers went down to the Roos last year by 22 points with Lucas being the main focal point Josh Gibson took to Lucas with Firitto taking most of the drive out of defence. Lloyd will force him to play accountable football while leaving North probably one quality tall defender to cope with who ever the floating 3rd tall will be.

What needs to go right

In 2007 North Melbourne chose to play direct corridor football on offence and they went man on man when turned to defence. Pre-season shows us that the Bombers now look to run in numbers through the corridor as well, choosing to break set zone lines though run off the half back line. The will switch play to find the space to run moving the ball quickly to a contest in the forward 50. The man on man defence of the Roos will test this set piece as North are likely to clog the space into which the bombers can run, forcing us to kick to half forward rather than directly into the forward line from mid field, what needs to happen is the skills of Courtenay Dempsey, Jay Nash and Nathan Lovett-Murray need to be able to back themselves against their direct opponent to avoid compromising their coaches new game plan. Half forward need to push up into the midfield when rebounding from defence to leave a large open forward line for Lucas, Lloyd and Hille to roam. As stated before Laycock and Hille need to force McIntosh who is now one of North’s main play makers to play more defensive football, do this and get on top early and it will go a long way to steering the Bombers to victory.

What Could Go Wrong

North’s man on man defence could force the Essendon into some “old habits” of procrastinating with the football or forcing quick turn overs.

Predictions

First Goal – Adam McPhee
BOG – Brent Stanton
Result – Essendon by 15 points

The Team
B:	Dempsey	Michael	Fletcher
HB:	Slattery	Ryder	Nash
C:	Dyson	Watson	Houli
HF:	Jetta	McPhee	Lucas
F:	Davey	Lloyd	Lonergan
R:	Hille	Stanton	McVeigh
INT:	Johns	Johnson	Laycock
	Lovett-Murray	JMonfries	Peverill
	Ramanauskas

Kangaroos Team
B:	S. Thompson	Firrito	Watt
HB:	Pratt	Gibson	Wells
C:	Simpson	Harris	Swallow
HF:	Grant	Jones	Thomas
F:	Petrie	N. Thompson	Edwards
R:	McIntosh	Rawlings	Harvey
INT:	Power	Ross	Brown
	Hale	Campbell	Harding
	McMahon

Last Time – Round 7 2007 – Phone Dome
	1/4	2/4	3/4	Full Time
Essendon	2.9	5.11	8.14	13.17.95
Kangaroos	4.0	8.5	14.8	18.9.117
Full Match Report

Best Players
Essendon	Lucas, Stanton, Hird, Davey, McVeigh, Watson
Kangaroos	McIntosh, Harris, Swallow, Harvey, Firrito, Archer

Goals
Essendon	Lucas 5, Davey, Stanton 2, Houli, Johns, Laycock, Monfries
Kangaroos	Brown 4, Grant 3, Edwards, Jones 2, Hale, Harvey, McIntosh, Petrie, Sinclair, Smith, Swallow

TV Coverage
Seven Melbourne	2:30pm	Delay
Seven Adelaide	1:30pm	Live
Seven Perth	12:00pm	Live
Seven NSW	2:00pm	Live
Seven QLD	1:00pm	Live

Radio Coverage
SEN Melbourne	12:00 PM
MMM Melbourne	12:00 PM
3AW Melbourne	12:00 PM
ABC Melbourne	12:00 PM
K-Rock Geelong	12:00 PM
MMM Adelaide	11:30 AM
5AA Adelaide	1:00 PM
ABC Adelaide	12:00 PM
6PR Perth	12:00 PM
ABC Perth	12:00 PM
NIRS Perth	11:30 AM
ABC Brisbane	1:00 PM
NIRS Brisbane	12:30 PM
ABC Hobart	12:00 PM
ABC Darwin	12:00 PM
NIRS Darwin	11:30 AM

Betting
Essendon	$2.00
Kangaroos	$1.82

BomberBlitz.com ‘Expert’ Tips
Andy	Essendon by 5 points
SuperSonic	Kangaroos by 15 points
Pazza	Essendon by 7 points
Bomberman007	Essendon by 12 points
Koala	Essendon by 11 points
Awesome_Scotty	Essendon by 1 point
No32	Essendon by 2 points
Riolio	Essendon by 7 points
bentfi	Essendon by 15 points

Posted 20 March 08 in News Match Preview