Round 2 - Geelong Match Preview

By smooth
Save for Scott Lucas’ left knee, things couldn’t be rosier at Windy Hill. A resounding win against an opponent who we hadn’t tasted victory against since way back in 2001 was the perfect way for Matthew Knights to instantly endear himself to the Bomber faithful. No sooner can we bask in the overwhelmingly positive vibes of such a stellar start to the post Sheedy/Hird era than face reigning premiers Geelong at The Dome this Sunday afternoon, it what promises to be the year’s first blockbuster match, and an instant measure of this team’s capabilities against the competition yardstick.

LAST ROUND

Essendon backed up it’s creditable NAB Cup performances by disposing of the Kangaroos by 55 points on Easter Monday. Despite the Roos dominating contested possession in the first quarter, and kicking the opening 2 goals of the second to establish a 27-point lead with Lucas already looking on from the sidelines, the slick Bomber running machine clicked into gear, slamming on 15 of the next 16 goals to overrun last year’s preliminary finalists.

Mark McVeigh was awarded the newly struck Archer/Hird medal with 32 possessions in the midfield coalface, whilst Captain Matthew Lloyd filled the void left by his good mate with 6 goals and looking like he has well and truly shaken off any lingering doubts over his hamstrings. Others to impress were Jobe Watson, Nathan Lovett-Murray with 4 goals from a forward flank, Adam McPhee in attack, as well as the new generation running brigade in Bachar Houli, Sam Lonergan, Courtenay Dempsey, Jay Nash, Leroy Jetta and Alwyn Davey. And a sight to gladden the heart, Adam Ramanauskas amassed 24 disposals from the back half and slotted a goal to remind all football fans of the quality player that he is.

The Cats ventured to AAMI Stadium to meet their roadkill from the 2007 Grand Final. Port Adelaide, still smarting from that record 119 point embarrassment at football’s “Big Dance”, served up a far more competitive performance, but the 31-point half-time deficit proved too much for the Power to overhaul, Geelong victorious by 9. Usual suspects Gary Ablett Jnr and Paul Chapman were best for the Cats, along with Andrew Mackie and last year’s Rising Star award winner Joel Selwood.

THE TEAMS

Both sides have named squads of 25. The Bombers lose start forward Scott Lucas, who ruptured the posterior crucuate ligament in his left knee in the first quarter of Monday’s match against North Melbourne, and is expected to miss 10-12 matches. He is the only omission from the side, and into the squad come speedster Jason Winderlich, who has battled a back problem for the majority of the pre-season, Angus Monfries, Courtney Johns and Damien Peverill.

The Cats will go into battle without running defender Andrew Mackie, who sustained a quad strain in the victory against the Power, and omitted Kane Tenace, while former Essendon rookie David Johnson, Travis Varcoe, David Wojcinski and 21-year old Harry Taylor, the Cats’ first selection (#17 overall) from the 2007 National Draft, will make his debut, named at Centre Half-Back. Premiership big-man Brad Ottens again misses with an ankle injury.

KEY PLAYERS

ESSENDON

David Hille – With Brad Ottens injured, and Steven King traded to St. Kilda in the off-season, Geelong will have to rely on the inexperienced ruck duo of Mark Blake, and second-gamer Trent West. Hille would’ve watched with interest the way Ottens ruthlessly exploited Collingwood’s underwhelming ruck combination of Guy Richards and Chris Bryan in last season’s preliminary final. In a game that was decided by less than a kick, the big Cat’s domination at the centre bounces, around the ground stoppages and down forward was the difference in arguably 2007’s most epic encounter. Hille and Jason Laycock must expose this temporary chink in Geelong’s armour if Essendon are to be any chance on Sunday.

Brent Stanton – Noticeably quiet against the Roos, Stanton failed to register a first quarter disposal, and had just 13 for the afternoon, thanks to the close attention of one of the AFL’s best run-with player in Brady Rawlings. Things won’t get much easier for him on Sunday, with Cameron Ling likely to be his minder, and will need to use every bit of his exceptional motor and ball-winning ability to escape the clutches of this feisty feline. Having inherited the famous #5 guernsey from James Hird, he has also inherited the #1 midfielders mantle from Hirdy, and thus will find life far more taxing being the hunted every week. Not only that, but Stants must be wary of the carrot-topped Cat’s ability to gather his own ball and deadly accurate shooting at goal, last year snagging 28.6, excellent for any midfielder, let alone one given the job of shutting down the opposition’s most damaging on-baller. Many believe that Stanton is a bit of a “downhill skier” and pays little respect for his opponent. Should he fail to afford Ling this, he will be cut to shreds.

Matthew Lloyd – Silenced the doubters of his fitness, leadership and ability to still be one of the game’s most damaging power forwards with 18 disposals, 11 marks and 6 goals. The vice-like hands, hard leading, high leaping and reliable left boot were there on show for all to witness in a superb skipper’s game, made even more important with the early loss of Scott Lucas. He will lock horns with Matthew Scarlett, the Geelong full-back has an excellent recent record against Lloydy, and with Lucas missing, will most likely get able assistance from his captain Tom Harley and veteran defender Darren Milburn, as 3rd men up in any marking contests. Scarlett compained last season about the rule changes recently introduced in the game, namely defenders not being able to hit arms in marking contests, and the controversial “hands in the back” rule. Keen observers will note that Lloyd was suspended from the corresponding fixture last season, so it remains to be seen if the Cats star can get the job done without resorting to the scragging tactics that have served him so well during his career. Here’s hoping Lloydy, with a little help from the AFL Rules committee (aka Kevin Bartlett) has found a cure for Scarlett Fever!!

GEELONG

Paul Chapman – They say that there’s 2 certainties in life, death and taxes. Well, in recent years, I’ve found a 3rd. Paul Chapman collecting Brownlow votes against the Bombers. Put simply, he has owned whatever opponent in red and black has lined up on him. Kevin Sheedy used to pit Mark Johnson against him, and despite MJ’s erstwhile efforts, on all occasions he was outrun, out-muscled and outclassed by the closely shaved on-baller/forward. As we all know, Sheeds is no longer coach, and Johnson has moved west to join Essendon Old Boys (aka Fremantle), so a new strategy needs to be found, and curbing Chappy will go a long way toward a Bomber victory.

Cameron Mooney – Another Cat who has owned Essendon in recent years, he has transformed himself from loose cannon to a premiership winning key forward and the Cats’ most valuable big man. Much will depend on how far and wide he roams. If he stays close to goals, big Mal Michael should look after him, if he plays high up around the 50, I wouldn’t be surprised if Paddy Ryder is given the task. All the while, Dustin Fletcher won’t be too far away, he will give both his backline buddies a chop-out, but it may be immaterial if the Geelong on-ball brigade supply the kind of quality delivery he feasted on in 2007.

Darren Milburn – The eldest player on the Geelong list, Milburn doesn’t receive the rave reviews of his more high-profile teammates, but he collects plenty of uncontested possession in the defensive half and sets up many forward thrusts, often the 3rd man up in marking contests to assist fellow backmen Matthew Scarlett and Tom Harley. He cannot be allowed to mop up defensive rebounds at will and is left to play the loose man in the back end. The Cats’ coaching staff will try to keep “Dasher” without an opponent, so it is imperative that Matthew Knights instructs the Dons midfieldres to not bomb aimlessly into the forward 50 and let him pick off rebounds and that we play through his direct opponent wherever possible in order to keep him accountable. I’d imagine he would take the 5th or 6th ranked Essendon forward, which might end up being Adam McPhee or Nathan Lovett-Murray. Both are strong overhead, mobile and smart enough around goal to keep the veteran Cat honest.

THE VERDICT

If there is a good time to face the reigning premier, it is now, before they have hit their straps, before they have won 10 games on end, and without their #1 ruckman. Having said that, we will have to play as well, if not better, than we did against the Kangaroos in order to have a 2-0 start to the year. Ablett, Bartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright and Selwood represent the competition’s best running brigade, and few will fancy the largely unheralded Bomber midfield. The start is critical. In most contests where the champion is faced with a young upstart challenger, the champs will try to leave an early mark. We need to stick close early and wear them down. If we are 5+ goals behind at quarter-time, it’s as good as done, but if the Dons can hang in there, play our game and show the spirit that allowed us to turn around a sizeable deficit into a sizeable win, our better preparation in pre-season could decide it.

Predictions

First Goal – David Hille
BOG – Jobe Watson
Result – Essendon by 3 points

The Team
B:	Nash	Michael	Fletcher
HB:	Ramanauskas	Ryder	Dempsey
C:	Davey	Stanton	Houli
HF:	Jetta	McPhee	Lovett-Murray
F:	Dyson	Lloyd	Winderlich
R:	Hille	Watson	McVeigh
INT:	Johns	Johnson	Laycock
	Lonergan	Monfries	Peverill
	Slattery

Geelong Team
B:	Harley	Scarlett	Hunt
HB:	Milburn	Taylor	Enright
C:	Ling	Selwood	Bartel
HF:	Chapman	Mooney	S. Johnson
F:	Gamble	Hawkins	Stokes
R:	Blake	Corey	G. Ablett
INT:	West	Byrnes	Kelly
	Wojcinski	D. Johnson	Prismall
	Varcoe

Last Time – Round 14 2007 – Phone Dome
	1/4	2/4	3/4	Full Time
Essendon	3.4	6.9	11.10	12.11.83
Geelong	4.3	7.9	12.14	19.19.133
Full Match Report

Best Players
Essendon	Watson, Welsh, Fletcher, Peverill, Slattery, McPhee
Geelong	G. Ablett, Chapman, Mooney, Ling, Egan, Selwood

Goals
Essendon	Lucas 3, Watson 2, Welsh 2, Hislop, Lovett, Ramanauskas, Ryder, Slattery
Geelong	Chapman, Ling, Mooney 3, Enright, Ottens, Stokes 2, G. Ablett, Hawkins, S. Johnson, Milburn

TV Coverage
Seven Melbourne	3:00pm	Delay
Seven Adelaide	3:30pm	Delay
Seven Perth	11:00am	Live
Seven QLD	1:00pm	Live

Radio Coverage
MMM Melbourne	12:00 PM
3AW Melbourne	12:00 PM
ABC Melbourne	12:00 PM
K-Rock Geelong	12:00 PM
6PR Perth	11:00 AM
ABC Perth	11:00 AM
NIRS Perth	10:30 AM
NIRS Brisbane	12:30 PM
ABC Hobart	12:00 PM
ABC Darwin	12:00 PM
NIRS Darwin	11:30 AM

Betting
Essendon	$3.75
Geelong	$1.27

BomberBlitz.com ‘Expert’ Tips
Andy	Geelong by 23 points
SuperSonic	Geelong by 42 points
Pazza	Geelong by 5 points
Bomberman007	Geelong by 23 points
Koala	Essendon by 32 points
Awesome_Scotty	Geelong by 24 points
No32	Essendon by 5 points
Riolio	Essendon by 1 point
smooth	Essendon by 3 points

Posted 27 March 08 in News Match Preview