Round 5 - St. Kilda Match Preview

By saladin
“never give a sucker an even break…” – W.C Fields

New Essendon coach, Mathew Knights, would do well to heed the advice given by the comedian – and, less well known, unscrupulous businessman – W.C Fields as he ponders the upcoming crucial match against St Kilda.

Twenty seven years ago, a highly talented, but slightly flaky Essendon list, coincidently also under the new tutorlage of an ex-richmond captain, had squandered many chances and slumped to an early season record of 1 win and 5 losses. Things looked grim, and there were mutterings at Windy Hill. But Round 7 saw a return to form when the Bombers ran over St Kilda to not only record Sheedy’s first victory against the boys from Moorabbin, but set the tone for 27 years of domination.

Since the start of sheedy’s tenure, Essendon have played St Kilda 41 times and clocked up the staggering result of 33 Wins and just 8 losses! It is a statistic that haunts the St Kilda club, and has Essendon fans confident of beating the Saints under any circumstances.

It is this unique record that makes Friday night so much more than just another home and away contest. For Essendon, and more pertinently Mathew Knights, it is a chance to widen a critical flaw in the fabric of a rival club. A win, with an undermanned and injury hit line-up, would make the definitive statement – it isn’t Kevin Sheedy who has it all over St Kilda, it is the Essendon Football Club. Such an event will give Knights an advantage in every game he coaches against the Linton St crew, just as it did his predecessor, throughout his coaching career.

The obstacles, however, are mounting by the week – in the unfortunate form of injuries. A slow and unfocused start against the bulldogs proved ultimately costly, but the real damage was done via injuries to rapidly emerging team barometer Mark Mcveigh, and fellow high intensity youngster Sam Lonergan. Both left the field early in the last quarter, with Essendon clinging to a remarkable 10 point lead after a scintillating third term, and their exit – combined with cramping to Winderlich – signalled the start of an avalanche as the Bulldogs ran riot for the last 20 minutes of the game.

But plenty could be taken from that game – particularly the daring run and attack in quarters two and three that opened up the Footscray running machine like few before them. The absence of a key forward – with Lloyd and Lucas missing – to take advantage of the midfield surge, and poor execution skills, was costly in the end. You can only work so hard without just reward for so long, and in the end the lead was never stretched to the 4 or 5 goals that was required.

Part of that equation will be rectified this week with the return of Mathew Lloyd. The captain leading out of the goal square will return the resting ruckmen to the role they are more suited too – second stringers – and give the st kilda backline something to worry about. One of the fisher’s is in doubt with an injury, Maguire is just starting the long road back from severe leg fractures, Max Hudgton is incapacitated often enough to play for Essendon this year and Jason Gram has struggled since the NAB cup! Throw in our crumbing forwards like Davey and Monfries (thankfully back from a bout of food poisoning), and the hard working Adam Mcphee, and the potential to tear the St Kilda defense to pieces is manifestly clear. Especially if Welsh can curb the defensive rebound of Gram and Montagna.

As always, it will be the midfield duel that decides this match. Robert “Weekend at Bernies” Harvey looks to be injured, and has had little effect anyway. If he plays, match him up with Stanton. Brent was infinitely better last week than during rounds 1-3, and if he continues to improve then he may yet reach the elite level that i tipped for him preseason. Dal Santo is playing like a little league pansy, and must be encouraged to do so again. Motivation to do this should be provided by Slattery. He is more than capable of monstering Dal. Lenny Hayes is the danger. He is running into form, and controlled the stoppages for periods last week against the likes of Ablett and Bartel. His disposal is still suspect under pressure though. I would be willing to let Watson go head to head with Lenny originally, and swap Davey and winder into the mix to hurt him going the other way. Armitage has come into the side in place of fiora – hopefully we pay him a little more attention than we did during the NAB Cup match. Lyon may well give armitage a stopping job on Lovett out on the wing. I thought Lovett was ordinary last week – with us losing more runners to injury, he needs to find some consistency for the side.

One of the keys to us winning this match is undoubtedly Hille. He has been outstanding this year, taking contested marks, getting involved around the ground and kicking goals. But i still think he struggles with the tapwork at times, and needs to lift. No doubt he can do it – his display late year against Adelaide was imperious. If he (and to a lesser extent, Laycock) can control King, then we can win the midfield stoppages and put St Kilda under enormous pressure. How Lyon chooses to use King will be interesting. If he tries to fill the hole in front of lloyd, then Hille needs to go forward with him – and preferably to the opposite flank to which lloyd is leading. Make king man him up, or else use hille as the free target. whatever he does, he MUST NOT draw extra numbers to Lloyd or the other marking forwards.

News coming out of St Kilda that Gehrig has been dropped opens up our defensive options. 1st thing to do is to assign Reimers the task of murdering Milne. This option is self-evident, surely? Next up, Paddy enters the true limelight by playing on Riewoldt. It is a tantalising matchup. I worry a little about Ryders strength is a contested scenario, but riewoldt is not really that type of player. He tries to outposition through mobility rather than force, and Paddy should have the agility, and closing speed, to make the contests. If riewoldt has to get kicks on the wing, we have had a huge win, not least because Ryder has the ability to peel off and get involved in the link work. The inclusion for Gehrig is Charlie Gardiner. This Geelong reject is also a hit-up forward. I would let Pears run around with him. Young Tayte is fresh and keen, has good mobility, and a very cool and calm demeanor. Kosi is a threat. He had a pretty good game last week, and with Gehrig not there he will have less competition for the incoming ball. Mal is the ideal match up at first. Great in a pack mark situation at getting a fist on the ball, he should do well if Kosi is static. Which leaves us with fletch. Dustin turned back the clock last week with an awesome display of zone defending. If we can manufacture a matchup that allows him to peel off and play the loose rebounding defender, he will cut St kilda to shreds. Lyon will be hoping Kosi or Riewoldt get on top of their opponents and force fletchers use in a purely defensive role.

The loss of Mcveigh, Lonergan, Dempsey and Jetta is obviously a huge negative considering how we are trying to play. And the Lucas injury will continue to dog us for another 6 weeks. But there is still enough ability – and self belief – to keep our record against the saints a winning one. We need to start well ( a factor that fellow blitzer “The Flyers” believes can be predicted by watching the prematch warmup), and we need to be clean and precise with our skills – this last item, sadly, most surely cost Pev his position in the side. Most importantly, we have the structure and personnel to cover St Kilda at both ends, and are undoubtedly quicker over the ground even with several runners missing. I’m backing Hille to hold his ground in the middle, and the whole side to show cleaner ball handling than last week. Lloyd is a huge in for our structure, and Fletcher has no obvious match up down back. It all points to Essendon breaking free of Lyons’ negating style, and a first up win for Knights by 5 goals – just like 27 years ago.

Posted 17 April 08 in Match Preview