Round 7 - Hawthorn Match Preview

By Trickster
This week we see Essendon come up against another old foe, Hawthorn, in a Friday night blockbuster at the ‘G. From the famous 1984-85 premierships, right up to the 2004 ‘line in the sand’ game, we’ve had hard-fought games with high animosity on both sides. However, these contests seem to have lost their ‘sting’ in recent times. The Hawks have taken the honours in our past six meetings, and generally by a reasonable margin. But with the young-gun Bombers having some much-improved players, and the Hawks struggling to recapture their premiership form, it could be time for the Dons to turn things around.

Season 2009 for Essendon has been nothing if not inconsistent. The first two rounds held little surprises, as our injury-ridden team’s loss to Port was followed by a comfortable win over a woeful Fremantle. Then the ride began, as fans and players alike basked in the glory of slaying old nemesis Carton, only for a week later to sit disheartened, watching our famous run by strangled by the Roos. But, of course, the excitement quickly returned, and ten-fold, by celebrating ANZAC Day with an amazing maverick win. However, this was once more followed by a disappointing loss, this time to the Lions. We also suffered another major injury to a key player, which suddenly made our injury list feel like a longer and more depressing read than War & Peace.

The reigning premiers started the season as one of the few sides with an injury list longer than Essendon’s, and it did affect their early performances. After losing the Grand Final rematch, then surprisingly dropping games against Sydney and Port, they looked merely a shadow of 2008’s team. But the return of some key players means that, unfortunately, they’re finding some better form. Last week they were in control for most of the day against a possible Top 4 team, but only just staggered away with the four points following Brendan Fevola’s amazing point.
There’s no doubt the Hawks are the more experienced and in-form team, and the huge favourite according to the punters. We, the fans, have even pointed the finger and accused Knights of a one-dimensional game-plan, and that suffocating our run means an easy win. Essendon certainly has a hard task ahead, especially considering the massive injuries we’re suffering. We’re undermanned, inexperienced and under pressure across the whole ground, and we need a lot of young players to ‘step up’ for us to have any chance of success. However, Hawthorn’s last game should offer us a glimmer of hope, as our team has the proven ability to take down teams who lose concentration in the final quarter (provided we stay within reach for the first three quarters).

Key Players:

Lance Franklin/Jarryd Roughead
The Hawk’s key forwards. Keeping one quiet is almost pointless, as more often than not the other will simply step up and kick twice as many by himself. In 2009 it’s been Roughead who’s been more dangerous, especially with his bag of eight last week, but Essendon would be very foolish to shift much focus from ‘Buddy’, as he could easily produce one of his trademarked, nine-goal, Bomber-killing hauls. Paddy Ryder is possibly now too valuable around the ground to play on Franklin, so I would expect to see Tayte Pears line up on him, with Cale Hooker having the equally-tough job on Roughead. A wise move could be to have a ‘floater’ around the half back line to cut off any quick leads from Franklin, Roughead, or Mark Williams. Adam McPhee would most likely take this role.

Cyril Rioli
The Hawk’s hugely talented ‘excitement machine’. Like many of his type, he’s playing more time outside the forward 50 as he gains more experience, and has potential to really hurt us at stoppages, both in defence and on the wing. We can anticipate Henry Slattery to be tasked with following Rioli, but he has possibly become too-quick and multi-talented for just a ‘shut-down’ defender. It would be interesting (not to mention hugely exciting) if we decide to try putting more pressure on him when he comes up the ground by getting Alwyn Davey to compete with him at stoppages.

Andrew Lovett
Our own silky-skilled speedster. He has finally become the player we all knew he could be. Freakish goals and blistering pace have always been part of his game, but now he also has great fitness, a level head, a surprising amount of leadership and a huge amount of imagination. In the likely event that we’ve found the game slipping away from us at half or three-quarter time (or even 25 minutes into the final quarter), this man will find some spark and optimism to get the team going again. Expect Chance Bateman (or even Mark Williams on occasion) to try and chase him down, but don’t expect them to succeed.

Matthew Lloyd
This match will see us finally get a break from the sight of Scott Lucas’s elbow, and with Fletcher, Hille and Laycock also out, the forward line would be Ryder’s last priority. With only Neagle to back him up as a big forward, Lloyd will have a lot of pressure and expectations in him. Our midfield and half-back runners have contributed their share of goals so far this season, with the quick-footed Winderlich even taking a spell in the goal-square. But to compete against the Hawks we will need to see Lloyd provide a real option up forward, and convert when he has the chance. A vintage Lloyd performance, like he produced against the Blues, could easily swing this game in our favour.

Jobe Watson
He’s becoming a huge influence on games, his ability to find the ball at stoppages has seen him touching leather more often than a BDSM enthusiast. Lately he seems to have had great composure, and almost always find a free man through the traffic. Jobe’s reading of the play is a major reason why our quick midfields get the opportunity so often to break away with the ball. With our ruck stocks depleted, our ground work has become even more important, and he’ll need to be at his best to compete with the hard-hitting Hawks midfield.

Also keep an eye on:

Chance Bateman
An under-rated Hawks midfielder, he’s been influential in all their wins so far, and should by no means be ignored. While Hawthorn have heaps of talents and flair up forward, it’s often Bateman’s dash through the midfield that manages to get it to the players who do the damage on the scoreboard. Should be a good match-up if he runs with Lovett.

Nathan Lovett-Murray
While he’s not regularly a key player, by any stretch of the imagination, it would be in Hawthorn’s best interest to be wary of him. In the last two meetings with the Hawks he has been one of our best, and one of the few who gave a good account of themselves both times. He’s shown he has a knack for negating Williams’ influence, while also creating run of his own. He’s also not in bad form in general, as last week he showed flashes of real determination and flair, and almost appeared to be trying to emulate his cousin Andrew’s new attitude.

Trickster’s clairvoyant prediction (Warning: May Contain Optimism):
Roughead to this time play the assistant to Franklin’s magic skills, but Lloyd to also show his bag of tricks is by no means empty. Lovett draws an ace from his sleeve in the final quarter, providing our youngsters with all the chance they need to pull another miraculous rabbit from the bottomless Essendon hat. Essendon’s skills are again written off as a mere illusion, but they prove themselves to be a real wildcard.
Essendon by 5 points

Posted  8 May 09 in Match Preview