Round 15 - Sydney Match Preview

By Jimmy
After two weeks of mind games, publicity, raw passion and emotion against the clubs two biggest rivals, we return to some form of normality this weekend when the Bombers travel north to take on Sydney at the SCG on Saturday afternoon. It’s been a big fortnight for Essendon, having trashed Carlton in Round 13 before being beaten by the Pies last weekend. Finals are still well and truly on the cards, and that fact alone makes a win against an up-and-down Sydney all the more crucial.

RECENT HISTORY Vs. SYDNEY
Our last game against Sydney was one that most Essendon supporters would want to erase from their memory – a young and injury-ravaged Bombers line-up were taught a football lesson from Sydney, who ran amok and came away with a 91-point victory. It was a game where the Swans’ stars shone – O’Loughlin (6 goals), Goodes, Kirk and Jolly were all prominent players in the match.

We’ve won four of our last ten games against Sydney – but with this fact we must also remember that only three of those ten games were played in Melbourne. We’ve played five games at the SCG in the last decade, and have come away with four wins as a result, including our thrilling one-point win in 2007.

WHICH GAME PLAN WILL TRIUMPH?
This is going to be a very interesting game, in the sense that these two clubs have great contrast in terms of their game plans. We are all aware by now that Matthew Knights has adopted the run-and-carry, fast-moving style of football, whereas Paul Roos has the Swans playing a slower and more congested game, designed to stop a team dead in their tracks and (literally) running away with the game.

Put simply, the team that plays their game plan most efficiently will be the team that takes the four points on Saturday afternoon. We know Sydney don’t like to run, so keeping the ball moving and running with it at any opportunity is going to be our best chance of winning the game. However, if Sydney can effectively clog up the game and deny us the chance to play on and run with the ball, they’ll be in the best position to win.

A key characteristic in Sydney’s game plan that we can exploit is their flooding tactic. If the Swans are moving the ball forward and bringing extra men to the contest, then it’s obvious that they will be deficient somewhere else on the field – their defensive half of the ground. If we can win the contest in our defensive half of the field and move the ball quickly back into attack, we should be able to catch Sydney out on the rebound and effectively have extra numbers up forward, plus our runners behind the ball.

On the contrary, the flooding of the Sydney Swans will be dangerous to us if we can’t work around it. If they continually shut us down and deny us the chance to run freely with the ball and play an open style of game, I believe some of our players may find it hard to cope with, and that’s where the problems will start. If Sydney succeed with slowing down the game, we need to make sure that we make them work for every possession they get and also make sure that our individual players stay on their men to avoid loose players.

THE KEY CONTEST
Without question, the key one-on-one contest of the game is going to be battled out in the ruck. Darren Jolly has showed some fine form and has been more than serviceable for the Swans in recent years, and also has a habit of kicking a goal or two as well (Jolly kicked three goals against Essendon last time the two teams met). It’s times like this when you wish we were still playing with David Hille, and with Paddy Ryder showing signs of fatigue as our stand-in ruckman, it is likely to be a factor of the game that will cause headaches for Matthew Knights and Co. Jolly should dominate the ruck, but then again, Fraser should have on ANZAC Day.

JIMMY’S PREDICTION
If Essendon can tick the following boxes, we will win this game: – Play freely and run with the ball – Counteract Sydney’s flooding tactics, and use them to advantage (i.e. catching them on the rebound) – Make Sydney work for their possessions – Keep a one-on-one contest with your man if Sydney resort to flooding

This will be a contest that will be fought up until the last minute of the game, and could swing either way. Form from this season suggests that the Bombers should get up, but on a small ground against a team that likes to clog up the game, it has the hallmarks of an epic contest.

Essendon by 2 points.

Posted 10 July 09 in Match Preview