Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+ 2010 draft and list management, what do you think we should do?

[fogdog]

I think at season end the new rule is we only have to delist 3 players as opposed to 5 players in previous years (I am sure Dunlop will confirm this either way).

A lot of what I am going to say here is assumptions and anything I mention the EFC might do is not based on fact or inside knowledge, just my opinion in the interest of generating discussion.

I think Essendon will only delist 3 players, meaning we will have 3 picks in the 2009 draft. If we end up 7th on the ladder, where we are now, then assuming both Melbourne and West Coast end up with priority picks 1 and 2, we would head into the 2009 draft with picks 12, 28 and 44.

My question is do we want to use picks 12, 28 and 44in the 2009 draft or are there better options??

Having seen a fair bit of U18s footy this week and this year, I agree with the experts that suggest the 2009 draft will not be deep with talent. There are about 4 or 5 exceptional players, maybe 10 very good midfielders and probably 3 key position players. All up the talent will not go further than probably mid second round.

I think our round 1 pick needs to be off limits. There are some very good mids who we could snare to further deepen our strengthening midfield.

What we do with picks 28and 44 is where I am interested in hearing what everyone else thinks. Is there a father son worth punting on with pick 50 given there won't be a lot of talent around come that pick?

Our backline looks in sensational shape, developing quick and improving faster than expected, it is not really an area we need to worry about.

Our midfield is becoming dominant. Against the Blues, who arguably have a good midfield, we rotated 12 players through and had McVeigh and Myers out of the team. It is also not an area we need to worry about.

Our rucks and forwardline could be an issue. Hille and Ryder sounds great together, but their support from Belchambers, Laycock and the untried Boch may be a concern.

Our forwardline is ageing. Lloyd and Lucas won't be there forever and whilst I have no doubt Neagle and Gumbleton have the talent, they haven't quite arrived and held down a spot yet. I am a huge fan of Williams and am excited by what we hear about Still, but a forwardline with Neagle, Gumbleton, Williams and Still is probably 2 or 3 years away.

I think Ruck/Forward is our biggest concern but a key forward/ruck that is ready to play is not available in this draft.

Here’s what I would do:

With pick 28, I think we should try and package it with a player to either obtain an late round one or earlier round two pick OR a potentially good player from another club.

Thorp from Hawthorn is a name that is thrown up a lot on here like Prismall's was in the past. Thorp is currently in a similar circumstance to Prismall in that he struggled to break into a good side before hurting his knee. Thorp couldn't get a game last year when the Hawks were strong and has been out injured with a knee reco this season.

Could we do a Prismall and get Thorp for pick 28?? This would certainly add to our forwardline and Ruck. I think that would be a steal given the ordinary draft.

The other component of this thread is who would we delist at year end. Without this being the focus of the thread or taking away from my points above, I think the three would more then likely be Atkinson, Nash and Lucas (retired).

I would also throw up another idea but preclude it by saying it's an idea and it's not because I don't like him at all. I would consider seeing what Houli and pick 50 could get us. Whilst there is a lot to like about Houli and he will more than likely develop into our best 22, at the moment he isn't getting a game and he may want to look elsewhere. Sydney, North Melbourne, Melbourne and Richmond are four teams he would be in their top 15 players.

My summary of what would be a great result would be:

Delist/retire: Nash, Atkinson and Lucas

Trade picks 28, 44 and Houli for Thorp and late round 1 early round 2 pick.

Essendon end up with picks 12, another round 1 pick and Thorp as well as a spot on the list to use in the pre-season draft.

[gotjenna]

i would be happy to trade our first pick for a quality midfielder.

i believe we have the foundations of a great team.

[Special Agent Johnny Utah]

Would love a small crumbing forward that can kick goals wth one of the picks (if available of course). Alwyn is good, but he's not a goal kicker capable to 30 goals in a season. His strengths lay elsewhere. Someone in the mould of a Matt Campbell would be awesome.

[fogdog]

Would love a small crumbing forward that can kick goals wth one of the picks (if available of course).  Alwyn is good, but he's not a goal kicker capable to 30 goals in a season.  His strengths lay elsewhere.  Someone in the mould of a Matt Campbell would be awesome.

I was looking out for something like this as well. Small forwards are the hardest players to draft for, you really take a risk on them. Two names, Motlop and Boon, both probably no certainty to be drafted, but both potentially could play that role.

Boon (David's son) is a bit of a physcho the way he goes at the ball, could be a good rookie.

[Dunnybrush]

Would love a small crumbing forward that can kick goals wth one of the picks (if available of course).  Alwyn is good, but he's not a goal kicker capable to 30 goals in a season.  His strengths lay elsewhere.  Someone in the mould of a Matt Campbell would be awesome.

Agreed, a genuine goal kicking small/crumbing forward is a definite requirement. Gus plays as a lead up forward and I like Alwyn further up field. Hopefully Jetta develops into this player, but that's not certain at this stage.

[Captain Jack]

lnteresting proposition. One thing is for sure, it is going to take a lot of wheeling and dealing to get some quality out of this draft, and it won't be easy to do so. What you propose is the sort of thing a club ( maybe us ) is going to have to contemplate in the draft.

Since there is less obvious talent available in this draft and most of that destined for the GC, the implications are that there are more chances for older players to be recycled this year, than in the past.

[Humble Minion]

I haven't seen enough VFL and I don't have enough of an inside track on what's happening in the club to guess at who'll be cut at the end of the year, but agree with foggy that we should only delist three. The draft isn't deep enough to warrant more, and we haven't got that much fat left on the list. Nash and Atkinson have got to be on thin ice, and Scotty might indeed call it quits. There's the chance someone like Houli might want to be traded elsewhere for more opportunities, but I'm not going to worry about that for the moment...

Assuming for the moment we finish 7th, Melb get a 1st-round priority pick, and Richmond tank for a 2nd round priority pick, by my maths that leaves us with picks 11, 28, 44.

I'd hang onto the first pick. At this very early stage, there's a few big, hard, skilled, goalkicking inside midfielders like Martin, Stevens, Cunnington who seem likely to be around, and any of them (from what I hear) would fit a need we have. Best available AND drafting for need - win-win.

I don't think we'd get Thorp for a second-rounder. It'd be much more likely that someone like Richmond, Carlton, Sydney, Freo, Port, all of who need young kpp and are likely to have earlier picks, would outbid us. It's a strategy worth thinking about though. Goldstein from the Kangaroos is one i'd be looking at for a 2nd rounder - this year's draft looks utterly empty of ruck talent, and he's behind a few in the pecking order at Arden St. If we're genuinely worried about the likelihood of Laycock making it, he might be a good option. I don't think there's much point in us trading for midfielders - if we're even remotely at full strength then we can't fit all the blokes we have into a single team anyway. Stants, Jobe, Gus, Ricky, Spike, Woosha, Prismall, Lovett, Winders, Dempsey, Davey, Reimers, Sammy, Hocking - all these blokes would be in a best 22, and that leaves Slatts, Bachar, Myers, Zaka, Jetta out who would all have to be stiff. Midfield depth is a non-issue at the moment.

Otherwise my general strategy would be to draft for upside and potential with later picks. X-factor, if you like, regardless of position or type of player. We've got more than enough depth and solidity coming through in pretty much every position - I'd be looking for freak factor and potential bargains that we can delist in a couple of years if they don't turn out without angsting over it too much. Blokes who have one obvious issue with them that will turn a lot of clubs off, but who could be guns if they can overcome it. Roll the dice. We've got enough depth in youth that we can afford to lose a few - and this draft is so shallow that by the time our second pick comes around the safe bets will all be gone already. We'll be left with the choice between the talented ones with glaring flaws or the ok ones who do their thing passably well but aren't particularly special at anything. I say we pick from group A.

Some possibilities might be Hooper (can seriously play and seriously kick, but is seriously short), Christiansen (short and unfit but a classy inside/outside mid), Pirika (explosive med forward who's new to the game, PNG bloke), Bartlett (rated up there with the better mids but did a knee preseason and hasn't played all year), Casboult (overlooked last year, bit of a dodgy kick and a bit slow but a 195cm contested marking machine), Gawn (massive ruckman, started well in the TAC and was selected for VM but also did a knee), Golby (half-back/mid, another knee guy), or even someone left-field like Frail (NSW, overlooked last year, forward-ruck rugby convert new to the game who beat NicNat in the u18 champs).

What would throw all this out would be the key forward situation. Lots will depend on the club's assessment of Gumby's recovery and Neagles fitness/headspace. If there's any real doubt about these two blokes, I'd be thinking very hard about picking up another key forward somewhere along the line, for insurance if nothing else - even looking in the SANFL or WAFL for a slightly older one if we have to. Still is very young and utterly untried, the Hurley/Pears/Hooker unit should be left to develop undisturbed into a unified next-decade defensive machine so I'd prefer not to throw any of them forward, and Daniher hasn't shown all that much in attack so far. If Neagle knuckles down on the track and if Gumby's back behaves itself I won't be too concerned, but if there's question marks over BOTH these blokes then we probably have to think about option C and D for the forward line post L&L.

[Future Captain]

Quality post foggy, as usual.

Agree with most of that, but am not sold on Thorp- he hasn't done enough to demand a spot in Hawthorn's lineup and didn't offer a lot earlier this season before he got injured.

The Houli idea to upgrade a pick could be worthwhile, although I don;t REALLY want to lose him.


PS- BOON!

[bombercomfort]

Firstly fingers crossed WC win this weekend miss out on the priority pick. I would think they would get another 1 wins this year anyways.

As for the delistings, I would rather lucas go around 1 more time and get rid of williams but thats just me. If Scotty wants to go well then he goes.

I like your idea of trading our second and first round picks however will other clubs want them. I would think to get thorpe we would need to give the hawks our second, third rounders and someone like houli. Trades this year will not be cheap as everyone will be trying to do the same thing as you are thinking. I think our best chance of a trade is with players like Mcphee, houli, laycock, monfries, H slatt. There are 3- 4 players there that are in our best 22 and would have some value on the open market. However they would all be a loss to our club and would have to get a great deal in return. Esp for someone like monfries.

[Paul Peos]

Interesting read and some good points. I'm not sure I'd be pushing too heavily to get Mitch Thorp though. If we could get him at a 'Prismall' like steal then yes, but wouldn't push too hard.

Trading Houli is an interesting one. For some reason, he is very highly regarded outside of Essendon circles, with many opposition supporters scratching their heads as to why he can't get a regular game. he may hold some value as a trade, although I would like to see him stay. But, you can't keep them all...

Obvioulsy Nash and Atkinson gone, is Williams worth holding onto? And by looking at this, it appears Scotty will have to retire or he may be asked to leave, which nobody wants to see.

i reckon the Rookies will be the key over these next few weaker / compromised drafts. If we can make a few good calls and find a hidden gem or two through the Rookie drafts, we'll be laughing.

[Gazza]

lnteresting proposition. One thing is for sure, it is going to take a lot of wheeling and dealing to get some quality out of this draft, and it won't be easy to do so. What you propose is the sort of thing a club ( maybe us ) is going to have to contemplate in the draft.

Since there is less obvious talent available in this draft and most of that destined for the GC, the implications are that there are more chances for older players to be recycled this year, than in the past.

The only picks Gold Coast have this year are the 12 priority slots for 17 year olds. They are NOT in the general draft, so most of the talent is not destined for them this year. Next year, certainly

[Humble Minion]

The priority pick equation - for what it's worth.

North Melbourne
Wins to go - 1
Pick eligibility: 2nd round

Games remaining -
Swans (SCG) , Hawks (aurora), Tigers (MCG) , Lions (Gabba), Carlton (Tdome), Melb (Tdome), Weagles (Sub), Saint K (Tdome), Port Adelaide (AAMI)

Freo
Wins to go - 2
Pick eligibility: 2nd round

Games remaining -
Carlton (Sub), Adelaide (AAMI), Brisbane (Sub), Weagles (Sub), Dogs (Tdome), Port Adelaide (Sub), Melb (MCG), Essendon(Sub), Geelong (Skilled)

West Coast
Wins to go - 1
Pick eligibility: 1st round

Games remaining -
Melb (MCG), St K (Sub), Port Adelaide (AAMI), Freo (Sub), Essendon (Sub), Dogs (Tdome), Roos (Sub), Adelaide (AAMI), Richmond (sub)

Melbourne
Wins to go - 4
Pick eligibility: 1st round

Games remaining -
Weagles(MCG), Port Adelaide (MCG), Cats (SKilled), Swans (Manuca), Tigers (MCG), North (tdome), Freo (MCG) , Carlton (Tdome), St Kilda (MCG).

Richmond
Wins to go - 2
Pick eligibility: 2nd round

Games remaining -
Adelaide (GC), Carlton (MCG) , North Melb (MCG), Essendon (MCG), Melb (MCG), Sydney(MCG) , Collingwood (MCG), Hawks (MCG) , Wcoast (Sub)

Games between eligible sides:

Rich vs Nth, Rich vs Melb, WC vs Rich, Melb vs Nth, Melb vs WC, Melb vs Freo, WC vs Freo

I don't think Melbourne will win more than maybe 1-2 more games, at the outside. I think Rawlings is under strict instructions from Tiger HQ not to lose the priority pick. Weagles and North will avoid pps this year I think - they're not THAT bad. Freo aren't either, but they've lost Palmer and Pav to injury and have a rough run home, so they still might fall in a heap...

[Gnik]

i reckon the Rookies will be the key over these next few weaker / compromised drafts. If we can make a few good calls and find a hidden gem or two through the Rookie drafts, we'll be laughing.

We have had a lot of success with lower picks & rookies, even in shallow drafts:

Dyson
Lovett
Lovett-Murray
Lonergan
Hocking
Reimers
Hooker

I'm usually more worried about our higher picks!

So, based on track record I'll back our recruiters to find some gems & I wouldn't like to see us pay over the odds for a higher pick.

Taking a punt on bottom age players makes sense with GC looming.

Obviously the medical prognoses for Gumby & Laycock will be a key.

[mickyb]

Id only make 3 changes to the list to add some stability because we have built a very good list over the last 5 years.
Delist Atkinson Williams and Lucas to retire. # young kids in the draft. perfect

[freddyfurburger]

based on afl performances to date houli is way ahead of thorp
who looked very average when he played in the 1s this year
might develop but we have some good talls

i'd like a midfld player who is quick, strong, good disposal, afl ready with plenty of improvement left & able to develop as inside & outside mid
hang on - that's houli - & we can't have too many of those!

every team needs a swarm of these types of mids
it's where afl games are won or lost - in the freakin midfld!
so stop with the trade houli/houli will leave/houli should be dropped stuff foggy
& get with the program
by saying 100 times each day -
houli is the future, houli is the future, houli is the future...